A New Approach to Short-Term Tsunami Forecasting

Год публикации: 2014

Авторы: Yury Korolev

Библиографическая ссылка: In: Tsunami - Analysis of a Hazard - From Physical Interpretation to Human Impact. InTech. 2012. P. 141-180.

Совершенствование оперативного прогноза цунами и тревоги цунами. Анализ последних цунами

Год публикации: 2012

Авторы: Ю.П. Королев, Т.Н. Ивельская

Библиографическая ссылка: Проблемы анализа риска, 2012, т. 9, №2, с. 76-91

An approximate method of short-term tsunami forecast and hindcasting of some recent events

Abstract. The paper presents a method for a short-term tsunami forecast based on sea level data from remote sites. This method is based on Green’s function for the wave equation possessing the fundamental property of symmetry. This property is well known in acoustics and seismology as the reciprocity principle. Some applications of this principle on tsunami research are considered in the current study. Simple relationships and estimated transfer functions enabled us to simulate tsunami waveforms for any selected oceanic point based only on the source location and sea level data from a remote reference site. The important advantage of this method is that it is irrespective of the actual source mechanism (seismic, submarine landslide or other phenomena). The method was successfully applied to hindcast several recent tsunamis observed in the Northwest Pacific. The locations of the earthquake epicenters and the tsunami records from one of the NOAA DART sites were used as inputs for the modelling, while tsunami observations at other DART sites were used to verify the model. Tsunami waveforms for the 2006, 2007 and 2009 earthquake events near Simushir Island were simulated and found to be in good agreement with the observations. The correlation coefficients between the predicted and observed tsunami waveforms were from 0.50 to 0.85. Thus, the proposed method can be effectively used to simulate tsunami waveforms for the entire ocean and also for both regional and local tsunami warning services, assuming that they have access to the real-time sea level data from DART stations.

Год публикации: 2011

Авторы: Yu.P. Korolev

Библиографическая ссылка: Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2011, 11, p. 3081-3091

О гидрофизическом способе оперативного прогноза цунами

Год публикации: 2011

Авторы: Ю.П. Королев

Библиографическая ссылка: Проблемы анализа риска, 2011, т. 8, №2, с. 32-47

Ретроспективный краткосрочный прогноз Андреяновского (Алеутские острова) цунами 1996 г.

Год публикации: 2011

Авторы: Ю.П. Королев

Библиографическая ссылка: Океанология, 2011, т. 51, №3, с. 409-417

Расчет цунами по измерениям уровня моря в удаленных точках при оперативном прогнозе

Год публикации: 2004

Авторы: Ю.П. Королев

Библиографическая ссылка: Океанология, 2004, т. 44, №3, с. 376-382